Zeven fondshuizen over QE

De ECB gaat voor 60 miljard euro per maand staatsobligaties opkopen. Hoe is dit ontvangen door grote beleggers? Gisteren en vandaag druppelden de commentaren van fondshuizen onze e-mailbox binnen. Allen zijn het erover eens: het vuurgeweld uit Mario Draghi's bazooka is groter dan verwacht. Daarnaast zijn de meeste blij met het besluit van de ECB om over te gaan tot kwantitatieve verruiming.

Hieronder de meest interessante zinsnedes uit de commentaren:

Johannes Müller, Deutsche AWM’s CIO Wealth Management Duitsland, vindt het optreden van politici eng:

"Het ECB-besluit van vandaag is aan de bovenkant van de verwachtingen zoals die in de marktprijzen waren verwerkt. We zijn veel meer verontrust door de aard van de discussies die vooraf gingen aan de bekendmaking door de ECB – waaronder vooraanstaande politici die de facto aankondigingen deden alsof het voldongen feiten waren over beslissingen die de onafhankelijke centrale bank nog niet eens had genomen."

Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist & Strategist bij Schroders: 

"The obvious question is will QE make a difference, especially as government bond yields in Europe are already so low? There is certainly scope for bond yields in peripheral Europe to fall further, and for those lower interest rates to feed through to the real economy via the banking system, however, we feel that the main impact will come through from the weaker euro, which will make European exporters more competitive internationally." 

Tim Stevenson van Henderson Global Investors vindt QE erg groot:

"The ECB has embarked on a much larger version of QE than originally expected. This should encourage confidence in the midst of a nervous economic climate in European business. The scale of purchasing is significant, at up to €60bn a month, starting in March 2015 and expiring September 2016."

Paras Anand, Head of European Equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, is geen fan van QE omdat het de creatieve destructie zijn gang niet laat gaan. 

"We have arguably been too quick to label the current collapse in inflation as structural rather than cyclical. History has shown that the corporate sector across Europe has emerged from each downturn fundamentally stronger, with greater focus on long term shareholder value creation which has driven economic growth within each successive cycle. This, more than anything, is what differentiates the current situation in Europe from the historic situation in Japan. Arguably we should encourage a normal 'creative destruction' cycle to take place whereby assets are transferred from genuinely weak hands to strong hands; further monetary easing does not aid this process."

Reinhold Knaus, senior economist multi asset solutions bij BNP Paribas Investment Partners, ziet dit mogelijk slechts als het begin: 

"By making the decision to buy government bonds, the ECB has cleared an important hurdle. If further scaling up is needed, it will be much easier to achieve than would be the case with less liquid asset classes."

Andrew Milligan, Head of Global Strategy, Standard Life Investments, constateert de vrijheid die de ECB zichzelf heeft gegeven. 

"First it is large. The total size will be equal to 12% of Eurozone GDP (the UK in contrast eventually reached 25% of GDP, over several rounds of QE). Secondly the package is broadly open ended. It will be carried out until 'at least' September 2016 and will run until the central bank is confident that it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. Finally, the conditionality around the programme does not look too restrictive. The ECB can buy up to 33% of an issuer’s bonds and up to 25% of an issue. Maturities can range out to 30 years."

Tot slot: volgens Robeco wilde de ECB de markten niet negatief verrassen":

"The program was clearly aimed at over-delivering on the headline, in order to not negatively surprise the markets. Looking at the initial reactions in the financial markets, the ECB appears to have been successful in doing so even though the underlying surprise is less impressive if you take the already existing asset buying programs into account."